Enflasyon (Inflation)<\/strong> ekonomik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin geli\u015fiminin en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesidir ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (Currency Markets)<\/strong> i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli kriterlerden biridir. d\u00f6viz tacirleri (Currency Traders)<\/strong> enflasyon verilerini (Inflation Data)<\/strong> takip etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Forex piyasas\u0131 perspektifinden<\/strong>, enflasyon (Inflation)<\/strong> etkisi do\u011fal olarak faiz oranlar\u0131 (Interest Rates)<\/strong> ile olan ili\u015fkisi \u00fczerinden alg\u0131lanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon (Inflation)<\/strong> fiyat seviyelerini (Price Levels)<\/strong> de\u011fi\u015ftirir, bu da finansal varl\u0131klardan elde edilen gelirin ger\u00e7ek getirilerini (Real Returns)<\/strong> de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu etki genellikle ger\u00e7ek faiz oranlar\u0131 (Real Interest Rates)<\/strong> kullan\u0131larak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr, ki bu oranlar geleneksel nominal faiz oranlar\u0131ndan (Nominal Interest Rates)<\/strong> farkl\u0131 olarak genel fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan para de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 hesaba katar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong>, ger\u00e7ek faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (Real Interest Rate)<\/strong> azalt\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc elde edilen gelirden bir k\u0131sm\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmelidir ve bu da al\u0131nan faydalarda (mallar veya hizmetler) herhangi bir ger\u00e7ek art\u0131\u015f sa\u011flamaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyonu resmi olarak hesaba katman\u0131n en basit yolu, nominal oran\u0131 (Nominal Rate)<\/strong> I<\/strong> ile enflasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (Inflation Coefficient)<\/strong> p<\/em> (y\u00fczde olarak da verilmi\u015f) ger\u00e7ek faiz oran\u0131 (Real Interest Rate)<\/strong> olarak de\u011ferlendirmektir,<\/p>\n\n\n\n r = i – p<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bariz nedenlerden dolay\u0131<\/strong>, h\u00fck\u00fcmet tahvil piyasalar\u0131 (Government Securities Markets)<\/strong> (bu t\u00fcr tahvillerin faiz oranlar\u0131 ihra\u00e7 s\u0131ras\u0131nda sabitlenir) enflasyona (Inflation)<\/strong> \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131d\u0131r, bu da bu ara\u00e7lara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapman\u0131n faydalar\u0131n\u0131 yok edebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyonun (Inflation)<\/strong> h\u00fck\u00fcmet tahvil piyasalar\u0131 (Government Securities Markets)<\/strong> \u00fczerindeki etkisi, onlarla yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili olan d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na (Currency Markets)<\/strong> kolayca aktar\u0131l\u0131r: belirli bir para birimi cinsinden tahvillerin (CRS) artan enflasyon (Inflation)<\/strong> nedeniyle sat\u0131lmas\u0131, bu para biriminde (CRS) nakit piyasas\u0131nda bir fazlal\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7ar ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla onun d\u00fc\u015fmesine \u2013 d\u00f6viz kuru (Exchange Rate)<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne neden olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ek olarak<\/strong>, enflasyon oran\u0131 (Inflation Rate)<\/strong> ekonominin “sa\u011fl\u0131k” durumunun en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesidir ve bu nedenle merkez bankalar\u0131 (Central Banks)<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle izlenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyonla (Inflation)<\/strong> m\u00fccadele etmenin tek yolu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (Interest Rates)<\/strong> art\u0131rmakt\u0131r. Faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, nakdi i\u015fletme cirosundan bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sapt\u0131r\u0131r; finansal varl\u0131klar daha \u00e7ekici hale gelir (k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131 (Interest Rates)<\/strong> ile birlikte artar), krediler daha pahal\u0131 hale gelir; sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00fcretilen mallar ve hizmetler i\u00e7in \u00f6denebilecek para miktar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu merkez bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 (Central Bank Rate Decisions)<\/strong> ile olan yak\u0131n ili\u015fkisi nedeniyle, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (Foreign Exchange Markets)<\/strong> enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerini (Inflation Indicators)<\/strong> yak\u0131ndan takip etmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Elbette<\/strong>, enflasyon seviyelerindeki (Inflation Levels) bireysel sapmalar<\/strong> (bir ay, bir \u00e7eyrek) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (Central Banks)<\/strong> faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (Interest Rates)<\/strong> de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi \u015feklinde tepki vermesine neden olmaz; merkez bankalar\u0131 (Central Banks)<\/strong> bireysel de\u011ferler de\u011fil, e\u011filimleri takip eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00d6rne\u011fin, 1990’lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon (Inflation)<\/strong>, FED’in indirim oran\u0131n\u0131 %3’te tutmas\u0131na izin verdi ve bu ekonomik toparlanma i\u00e7in iyiydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ama sonunda, enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri (Inflation Indicators)<\/strong> d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (Currency Markets)<\/strong> i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli kriterler olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Nominal indirim oran\u0131 (Nominal Discount Rate)<\/strong> k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011fu ve bunun ger\u00e7ek versiyonu (Real Version)<\/strong> genellikle %0.6’ya ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu, piyasalarda sadece enflasyon endekslerinin (Inflation Indices)<\/strong> yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketinin anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD indirim oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi, FED’in \u00f6nleyici anti-enflasyon \u00f6nlemi kapsam\u0131nda, federal fon oran\u0131yla birlikte May\u0131s 1994’te yaln\u0131zca y\u00fckseltilerek k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Ger\u00e7i, o zamanlar oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek dolar\u0131 destekleyemezdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyonun (Inflation) ana yay\u0131nlanan g\u00f6stergeleri<\/strong> T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI)<\/strong>, \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI)<\/strong> ve GSY\u0130H deflat\u00f6r\u00fc (GDP Deflator)<\/strong> ( GSY\u0130H \u0130mplicit Deflator<\/strong> )d\u0131r. Her biri ekonomideki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n genel resmini ortaya koyar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerdeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin anlam\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru \u015fekilde anlamak<\/strong> ve bunlar\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na (Foreign Exchange Markets)<\/strong> etkilerini de\u011ferlendirmek, ekonominin d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almadan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finansal s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel olarak geli\u015fti\u011fi bilinir: b\u00fcy\u00fcme, mutlaka bir durgunlukla, ard\u0131ndan toparlanma ve yeni bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle devam eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Belirli bir g\u00f6stergedeki ayn\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklik, g\u00f6zlemlendi\u011fi ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn hangi a\u015famas\u0131nda oldu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak tamamen farkl\u0131 ekonomik anlamlara (ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla finansal sonu\u00e7lara) sahip olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu t\u00fcr bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin d\u00f6viz kuru (Exchange Rate)<\/strong> \u00fczerindeki beklenen etkisi, finansal otoritelerin ekonominin durumunu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak d\u00fczenleyici kararlar almalar\u0131 nedeniyle bu durumlarda tam tersi olabilir. Kavram bilgisi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fc (Economic Cycle)<\/strong>, di\u011fer ad\u0131yla i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (Business Cycle)<\/strong>, ekonominin do\u011fal bir geli\u015fim (b\u00fcy\u00fcme) bi\u00e7imidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik geli\u015fimin dinamiklerini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak, \u00fc\u00e7 ana a\u015fama vard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n – Durgunluk (Recession)<\/strong> i\u015f faaliyetlerinde azalma, \u00fcretimde, istihdamda ve gelirde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olup, ekonomik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derecesine g\u00f6re kriz ve depresyon olarak ayr\u0131l\u0131r;<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Toparlanma (Recovery)<\/strong> ekonomik faaliyette art\u0131\u015f, piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmesi, durgunluk s\u0131ras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretimin \u00f6nceki seviyelere y\u00fckselmesidir;<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Geni\u015fleme (Expansion)<\/strong> toparlanma a\u015famas\u0131ndan sonra ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam\u0131d\u0131r, genellikle \u00f6nceki d\u00f6ng\u00fcde elde edilen yeni maksimum \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131y\u0131 a\u015fana kadar s\u00fcrer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Geni\u015fleme a\u015famas\u0131 bazen birka\u00e7 d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc i\u00e7erebilir, bu durumda bunlara b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri (Growth Cycles)<\/strong> denir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Her ekonomik g\u00f6sterge<\/strong> bir \u015fekilde d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel davran\u0131\u015f sergiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu g\u00f6stergelerin d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin bireysel \u00f6zelliklerini zaman parametreleri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan oranlar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almak yeterlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n G\u00f6stergelerin do\u011fas\u0131na (Nature of Indicators)<\/strong> ve genel ekonomik dinamiklerle olan ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, genellikle pro-sikliksel (Procyclical)<\/strong> g\u00f6stergeler (bunlar\u0131n seyri ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin genel y\u00f6n\u00fcyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr – ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte kurumsal karlar artar), kontrendikliksel (Counter-Cyclical)<\/strong> g\u00f6stergeler (bunlar genel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ters y\u00f6neliktir – ekonomi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde i\u015fsizlik artar) ve asikliksel (Acyclical)<\/strong> g\u00f6stergeler (bunlar\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fc i\u00e7inde \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fir) ayr\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu \u00f6zelli\u011fe g\u00f6re baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerin k\u0131sa bir s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n G\u00f6stergeler<\/strong>, ekonomik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6nlerini belirlemek ve dikkate almak i\u00e7in olu\u015fturuldu\u011fundan, bunlar\u0131n davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da kendine \u00f6zg\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00d6zellikle, belirli bir g\u00f6stergenin genel trende g\u00f6re \u00f6nde mi yoksa ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ana seyri gerisinde mi kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu temelde, en bilinen g\u00f6stergeler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’nde, ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri takip eden ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f noktalar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen \u00f6zel bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015fu olan Ulusal Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00fcrosu (NBER – National Bureau of Economic Research) bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bunun kolay bir g\u00f6rev olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, farkl\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerin d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri zaman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birbirlerine g\u00f6re kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu g\u00f6stergeleri kullanarak k\u00fcresel ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc izlemek ve ona nesnel \u00f6zellikler kazand\u0131rmak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomik faaliyetteki bir\u00e7ok kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131, i\u015f planlar\u0131nda bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcye g\u00f6re hareket edecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n NBER y\u00f6ntemi<\/strong>ne g\u00f6re, bir durgunluk (recession), ger\u00e7ek GSY\u0130H’nin (GDP) iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle ba\u015flar. Ancak bu t\u00fcr bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, g\u00f6stergeler s\u0131kl\u0131kla ana trendden sapabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir durgunlu\u011fu zorunlu k\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Di\u011fer bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6sterge, e\u011filimin genel de\u011ferlendirmesini olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in dahil edilir ve bu e\u011filim, \u00e7o\u011fu ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 ve uygulay\u0131c\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin kendilerinin (GSY\u0130H (GDP)<\/strong>, sanayi \u00fcretimi (Industrial Production)<\/strong>, ticaret dengesi (Trade Balance)<\/strong> vb.) en \u00f6nemli de\u011feri de\u011fil, aydan aya, \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe ve daha uzun vadede y\u0131ldan y\u0131la olan de\u011fi\u015fiklikleridir. Ekonomik durumun i\u015f sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi, \u00fcreticilerin ve t\u00fcketicilerin ruh hali ve faaliyetlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerde bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerde en net \u015fekilde ifade edilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerin ikna edici genel bir teorisi yoktur<\/strong>, t\u0131pk\u0131 bunlara yol a\u00e7an nedenler konusunda bir fikir birli\u011fi olmamas\u0131 gibi. Ekonomik dalgalanmalar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedenleri olarak \u00e7e\u015fitli ekonomik teoriler, \u00f6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu t\u00fcr fenomenleri dikkate almak<\/strong> basit bir mesele olamaz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Uzun zamand\u0131r iyi anla\u015f\u0131lan temel \u015fey, d\u00f6ng\u00fclerin ekonomik geli\u015fimin i\u00e7sel nedenleri taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcretilen ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir fenomen oldu\u011fu ve ekonomik geli\u015fimin b\u00fct\u00fcnsel itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu nedenle, t\u00fcm medeni \u00fclkelerde ekonominin d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel geli\u015fim parametrelerini takip etmek ve tahmin etmek en \u00f6nemli devlet fonksiyonu olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSY\u0130H – Gross Domestic Product)<\/strong>, belirli bir s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda \u00fclkede faaliyet g\u00f6steren t\u00fcm \u00fcreticiler taraf\u0131ndan yarat\u0131lan katma de\u011fer miktar\u0131n\u0131n genel g\u00f6stergesidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H, ekonominin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn (veya tersine, durgunluk d\u00f6nemlerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n) geni\u015f bir g\u00f6stergesidir. D\u00f6viz kuru (Exchange Rate)<\/strong> ile ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 her zaman a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r ve olduk\u00e7a do\u011frudur – GSY\u0130H ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcrse, ulusal para birimi o kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (Currency Markets)<\/strong> i\u00e7in bu, ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergelerden biridir. Ana ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergelerinin yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131na ve d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f (g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f) de\u011ferlerine tepki olduk\u00e7a belirgin olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H tan\u0131m\u0131<\/strong>, makroekonomi ders kitaplar\u0131nda bilindi\u011fi gibi, t\u00fcketim ve gelir bile\u015fenleri i\u00e7in \u00e7ift giri\u015f sa\u011flar:<\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H = C + I + G + NE = PI + PR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Burada<\/strong> C<\/strong> – T\u00fcketim (Consumption)<\/strong>, I<\/strong> – Yat\u0131r\u0131m (Investment)<\/strong>, G<\/strong> – H\u00fck\u00fcmet Harcamalar\u0131 (Government Spending)<\/strong>, NE<\/strong> – Net \u0130hracat (Net Exports – Exports – Imports)<\/strong>, PI<\/strong> – Ki\u015fisel Gelir (Personal Income)<\/strong>, PR<\/strong> – Sahiplerin Karlar\u0131 (Profits Owners)<\/strong> anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H<\/strong>, hem nominal (cari fiyatlarda) hem de sabit d\u00f6nemdeki fiyatlarla (Ger\u00e7ek GSY\u0130H (Real GDP)<\/strong>) hesaplan\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Nominal GSY\u0130H’n\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek GSY\u0130H’ya oran\u0131 GSY\u0130H deflat\u00f6r\u00fc (GDP Deflator)<\/strong>; bu ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri (Inflation Indicators)<\/strong> aras\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan bir g\u00f6stergedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H’ye ek olarak, buna anlamca yak\u0131n olan Gayri Safi Milli Has\u0131la (GNP)<\/strong> g\u00f6stergesi de kullan\u0131l\u0131r; bu g\u00f6sterge, belirli bir \u00fclkenin sakinlerinin, nerede bulunduklar\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n, ulusal s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde veya d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcrettikleri mal ve hizmetlerin toplam \u00fcretimini dikkate al\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n GSY\u0130H verileri<\/strong> \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlerde yay\u0131mlan\u0131r; ABD i\u00e7in yayg\u0131n yay\u0131n zaman\u0131, \u00e7eyre\u011fin bitiminden sonraki ay\u0131n 20’sidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sonraki iki ay i\u00e7inde, g\u00f6stergenin revize edilmi\u015f (d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) de\u011ferleri yay\u0131mlan\u0131r. Yar\u0131y\u0131l verileri \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra kadar g\u00fcncellenebilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerin dinamiklerini GSY\u0130H (GDP)<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan analiz ederken, demografik fakt\u00f6rler veya d\u00fcnya sava\u015flar\u0131 gibi \u00e7ok uzun vadeli olanlardan, ekonomide dengesizliklere neden olan daha k\u0131sa vadeli nedenlere kadar \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7eklerde fenomenleri dikkate almak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sanayi \u00dcretimi (IP – Industrial Production)<\/strong>, sanayi, madencilik ve enerji tedarikindeki \u00fcretim tesislerinin \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu, t\u00fcm ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkisi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 (Foreign Exchange Market)<\/strong> i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir ve bu nedenle finansal politikayla yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkilidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IP’nin (Industrial Production)<\/strong> geli\u015fmesi, ekonominin genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi anlam\u0131na gelir; bu da \u00fclkenin k\u00fcresel ekonomideki konumunun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanmal\u0131, bu da \u00fclkenin mallar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131ndaki rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn artmas\u0131na ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ticaret dengesinin (Trade Balance)<\/strong> ve ulusal para biriminin d\u00f6viz kurunun (Exchange Rate)<\/strong> y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7mal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IP endeksi<\/strong> ayl\u0131k olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 15. g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda yay\u0131mlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kapita Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131 (CAPU – Capacity Utilization)<\/strong>, toplam sanayi \u00fcretiminin, sanayilerin toplam verimlilik de\u011ferine (potansiyel \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131) oran\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu g\u00f6sterge, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 (Foreign Exchange Market)<\/strong> i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn dinamikleriyle olan yak\u0131n ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 sayesinde, merkez bankas\u0131 (Central Bank)<\/strong> politikalar\u0131nda olas\u0131 gelecekteki kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcren piyasaya ek bir kriter sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri (Durable Goods Orders)<\/strong> g\u00f6stergesi, \u00f6mr\u00fc 3 y\u0131ldan fazla olan dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mallar i\u00e7in \u00fcretim sipari\u015flerinin istatistiklerini kapsar (arabalar, mobilya, buzdolaplar\u0131, m\u00fccevher vb.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda sipari\u015fler, metal i\u015fleme (birincil metaller), makine m\u00fchendisli\u011fi, elektrik ekipmanlar\u0131 ve ula\u015f\u0131m olmak \u00fczere 4 ana kategoriye ayr\u0131l\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130statistiklerde b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri sipari\u015flerin etkisini hari\u00e7 tutmak i\u00e7in savunma\/d\u0131\u015fsavunma d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ayr\u0131 tutulur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n G\u00f6sterge \u00f6nemlidir<\/strong> \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 (Foreign Exchange Market)<\/strong> i\u00e7in t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimli sipari\u015fler, t\u00fcketicinin para harcama isteklili\u011fini g\u00f6sterir, bu da \u00fcretimi te\u015fvik eder ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonominin di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelerini de olumlu etkiler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu nedenle, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mallar (Durable Goods)<\/strong> \u00fczerine y\u00fcksek veriler, d\u00f6viz kurunu (Exchange Rate)<\/strong> g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir fakt\u00f6rd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stoklar\u0131n (Stocks) dinamiklerini ve sat\u0131\u015f hacimleriyle (Sales) ili\u015fkilerini karakterize eden g\u00f6stergeler<\/strong> (\u0130\u015fletme Stoklar\u0131 ve Sat\u0131\u015flar (Business Inventories and Sales)<\/strong>) belirgin d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel dinamikleri nedeniyle faydal\u0131 kriterlerdir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Bunlar\u0131n veri kaynaklar\u0131, mal \u00fcreticileri, toptanc\u0131lar ve perakendecilerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bunlar, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterge \u015feklinde yay\u0131mlan\u0131r: stoklar, sat\u0131\u015flar ve stoklara sat\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 (Inventories to Shipments Ratio – INSR)<\/strong>, ayl\u0131k olarak dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mallar verilerinin yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131ndan 6 i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc sonra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri (Inflation Indicators)<\/strong>, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (Currency Markets)<\/strong> i\u00e7in \u00f6nemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 ekonomik g\u00f6stergeye k\u0131yaslanamaz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Tacirler (Traders)<\/strong>, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Central Bank’s) anti-enflasyon arac\u0131<\/strong> olan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (Interest Rates)<\/strong> art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n D\u00f6viz Kuru ve Enflasyon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
Pro-sikliksel (Procyclical)<\/strong><\/td> Anti-sikliksel (Anticyclical)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkili<\/td> Zay\u0131f ili\u015fkili<\/td> Kontrendikliksel (Counter-Cyclical)<\/td> Asikliksel (Acyclical)<\/td><\/tr> K\u00fcm\u00fclatif \u00dcretim (Cumulative Output)<\/strong> ve ekonominin sekt\u00f6rlerine g\u00f6re \u00fcretim
\u0130\u015fletme Karlar\u0131 (Business Profits)<\/strong>
Para Agrega<\/strong>
Para H\u0131z\u0131 (Velocity of Money)<\/strong>
Fiyat Seviyesi (Price Level)<\/strong>
K\u0131sa Vadeli Faiz Oranlar\u0131 (Short-Term Interest Rates)<\/strong><\/td>H\u0131zl\u0131 T\u00fcketim Mallar\u0131 (FMCG)<\/strong>
Tar\u0131m \u00dcretimi (Agricultural Production)<\/strong>
Do\u011fal Kaynak \u00c7\u0131kart\u0131m\u0131 (Natural Resource Extraction)<\/strong>
Uzun Vadeli Faiz Oranlar\u0131 (Long-Term Interest Rates)<\/strong><\/td>Tamamlanm\u0131\u015f Mallar\u0131n Stoklar\u0131 (Stocks of Finished Goods)<\/strong>
Hammadde ve Malzeme Stoklar\u0131 (Stocks of Raw Materials and Supplies)<\/strong>
\u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 (Unemployment Rate)<\/strong>
Borc Oran\u0131 (Bankruptcy Rate)<\/strong><\/td>Ticaret Dengesi (Trade Balance)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n \u00d6nc\u00fc G\u00f6stergeler (Leading Indicators)<\/em><\/td> Gecikmeli G\u00f6stergeler (Lagging Indicators)<\/em><\/td> E\u015fzamanl\u0131 G\u00f6stergeler (Coinciding Indicators)<\/em><\/td><\/tr> \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Haftas\u0131 Uzunlu\u011fu (Workweek Length)<\/strong>
Yeni \u0130\u015fletme Say\u0131s\u0131 (Number of New Businesses)<\/strong>
Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 (Housing Starts)<\/strong>
Borsa Endeksleri (Stock Market Indices)<\/strong>
Kurumsal Karlar (Corporate Profits)<\/strong>
Para Arz\u0131ndaki De\u011fi\u015fim (Change in Money Supply)<\/strong>
Stoklardaki De\u011fi\u015fim (Change in Stocks)<\/strong><\/td>Uzun Vadeli \u0130\u015fsiz Say\u0131s\u0131 (Number of Long-Term Unemployed)<\/strong>
Yeni \u0130\u015fletmelere ve \u00dcretim Ara\u00e7lar\u0131na Harcanan Harcama (Spending on New Enterprises and Means of Production)<\/strong>
\u00dccret Birim Harcamas\u0131 (Unit Spending on Wages)<\/strong>
Ticari Bankalar\u0131n Ortalama Faiz Oranlar\u0131 (Average Interest Rates of Commercial Banks)<\/strong><\/td>GSY\u0130H (GDP)<\/strong>
\u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 (Unemployment Rate)<\/strong>
Sanayi \u00dcretimi (Industrial Production)<\/strong>
Ki\u015fisel Gelir (Personal Income)<\/strong>
\u00dcretici Fiyatlar\u0131 (Producer Prices)<\/strong>
Resmi Faiz Oranlar\u0131 (Official Interest Rates)<\/strong>
Reklam Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (Advertising Applications)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n
Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme G\u00f6stergeleri, Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u00dcretim Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc G\u00f6stergeleri<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Sanayi \u00dcretimi (Industrial Production)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Kapita Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131 (Capacity Utilization)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim Mallar\u0131 Sipari\u015fleri (Durable Goods Orders)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Stok G\u00f6stergeleri (Inventory Indicators)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Enflasyon G\u00f6stergeleri (Inflation Indicators)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n