{"id":98350,"date":"2025-01-06T08:18:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T08:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/expforex.com\/forex-for-beginners-part-4\/"},"modified":"2025-04-07T13:37:56","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T13:37:56","slug":"forex-for-beginners-part-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/expforex.com\/vi\/forex-for-beginners-part-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Giao d\u1ecbch ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (Forex) cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 4: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

PH\u00c2N T\u00cdCH TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG NGO\u1ea0I H\u1ed0I C\u01a0 B\u1ea2N<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ng\u00e0y nay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng r\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn: kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX – Foreign Exchange) to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng hai ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la, v\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 80% c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 nh\u1eb1m ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y thu h\u00fat nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia, c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00fd do kh\u00e1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n; v\u00ed d\u1ee5, d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u tr\u00edch t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i b\u00e1o trong t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed FUTURES<\/strong> (Anh, th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 1996): <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n 1.000.000 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i n\u0103m d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 hoa h\u1ed3ng.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c b\u00e3i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 1998 \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 1,982 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la (th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng London chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 32% kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, New York kho\u1ea3ng 18%, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ee9c – 10%). \u0110i\u1ec1u \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 1977, kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 n\u0103m t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la; sau m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m, con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u0103ng l\u00ean 600 t\u1ef7 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1992.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh trong giao d\u1ecbch li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u00e0 10 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1edd s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin trong hai th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nh\u1eadn ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, ngh\u1ec1 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao quanh b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t b\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng kh\u00ed huy\u1ec1n b\u00ed, nh\u01b0ng nay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, v\u1ed1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n l\u1edbn, nay \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf c\u1eeda cho c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang nh\u1edd v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng giao d\u1ecbch \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u0169ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean giao d\u1ecbch qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, giao d\u1ecbch qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed chi\u1ebfm 11% t\u1ed5ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n tham gia v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX) \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Nh\u1edd v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng giao d\u1ecbch k\u00fd qu\u1ef9, ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 v\u1ed1n nh\u1ecf c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham gia. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty cung c\u1ea5p d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 giao d\u1ecbch k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 v\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch mua b\u00e1n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ea5p 40 \u0111\u1ebfn 100 l\u1ea7n kho\u1ea3n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3. Kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro thua l\u1ed7, v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng l\u00e0m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o cho c\u00f4ng ty. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX) \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean d\u1ec5 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi, v\u00e0 v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng ty kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng thu h\u00fat ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00e1 d\u1ec5 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3, v\u00ed d\u1ee5, 1.000 \u0111\u00f4 la, v\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m giao d\u1ecbch cung c\u1ea5p cho kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd “\u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y,” cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n nh\u1ecf tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX) b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 1.000 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100.000 \u0111\u00f4 la. S\u1ef1 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng thu v\u1ec1 thu nh\u1eadp l\u1edbn. Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, c\u00e1c bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t giao d\u1ecbch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 thi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tham gia giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao. Ngo\u00e0i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thu v\u1ec1 thu nh\u1eadp l\u1edbn, ch\u00fang c\u00f2n mang theo kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thua l\u1ed7 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0, theo c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. M\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t n\u01a1i \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 v\u00e0 tinh th\u1ea7n c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng s\u0103n t\u00ecm may m\u1eafn. \u0110\u00f4i khi, c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. \u01afu \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i l\u00e0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh nh\u1edd v\u00e0o s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, d\u00f9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd. Nh\u01b0ng kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX) kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5. N\u1ebfu c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n; v\u00ed d\u1ee5, y\u00ean Nh\u1eadt, \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u00ean 25% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f4 la trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 1998. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y ri\u00eang khi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00f4 la \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o b\u1eb1ng h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m (\u0111\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh, trong v\u00ed d\u1ee5 tr\u00ean, s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 1,2%). Nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 \u1edf b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 \u0111\u00e2u; giao d\u1ecbch v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng su\u1ed1t ng\u00e0y \u0111\u00eam; n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1edfi gi\u1edd giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u00e0n, v\u00ec giao d\u1ecbch di\u1ec5n ra gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. S\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m x\u1ea3y ra r\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean, cho ph\u00e9p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u giao d\u1ecbch m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p xung quanh n\u00f3 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ai s\u00e1nh k\u1ecbp v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o trang thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 thu\u00ea h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi ph\u00ed ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 tham gia v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y ng\u00e0y nay l\u00e0 khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n. Th\u1eadt ra, ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n v\u00e0i ngh\u00ecn \u0111\u00f4 la \u0111\u1ec3 tham gia kh\u00f3a \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o ban \u0111\u1ea7u, mua m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh, \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd m\u1ed9t d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n k\u00fd qu\u1ef9. B\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3. V\u1edbi qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 cung c\u1ea5p trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1. Ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch. Nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n nay, m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o b\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1n tham gia m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n mang theo. Ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c t\u1eadp trung nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u00ean tham gia, kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt trong th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. Kh\u00f4ng ai th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb c\u1ea9n tr\u1ecdng. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai; n\u00f3 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Anh h\u00f9ng huy\u1ec1n tho\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, George Soros, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129; \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i \u00edch \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n b\u1ea3ng Anh gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. V\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh, sau khi chi kho\u1ea3ng 20 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1ea3ng Anh, \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf, \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 Soros \u0111\u00e3 ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c can thi\u1ec7p ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f2n suy ngh\u0129 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Alan Greenspan, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (FED – ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi), theo c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o khi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf. \u00d4ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf, ki\u1ec3m tra m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u khi \u00f4ng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm manh m\u1ed1i v\u1ec1 con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, ch\u00fang ta, v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc c\u00e1ch tr\u00edch xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng mong mu\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro; t\u1ee9c l\u00e0, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t giao d\u1ecbch, d\u1ef1 \u00e1n hay m\u1ed9t giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta cho r\u1eb1ng giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (\u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nguy hi\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh v\u00ec, do t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra thua l\u1ed7, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00e1nh xa th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00f3 \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean d\u1ec5 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn nh\u1edd v\u00e0o c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c g\u00f3i ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kinh doanh n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 trong c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1. Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd trong t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 hay s\u1ef1 k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng hy v\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch kinh doanh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u1ee7i ro (Risk)<\/strong>, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m g\u00ec, tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1eady, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 giao d\u1ecbch nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn sai l\u1ea7m trong vi\u1ec7c l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u00fang. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p kinh doanh – b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m (insurance)<\/strong>, m\u1ed9t l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i. V\u1eady c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u00fang l\u00e0 g\u00ec n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh tham gia giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0nh vi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh t\u1ebf thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia th\u00e0nh hai l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m, gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn trong c\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn ri\u00eang v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean – d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/strong>, c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u00f3, th\u00ec k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y. Ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c li\u00ean k\u1ebft b\u1edfi kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (quantitative forecasting methods)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta quan t\u00e2m – th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng – b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1, m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh quan s\u00e1t trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ee7 d\u00e0i, l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp, v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bao g\u1ed3m vi\u1ec7c suy ra c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai (“ng\u00e0y mai”) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1eeb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00f3, tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (quantitative forecasting methods)<\/strong> v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c – tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c, quy\u1ec1n uy, chi\u00eam tinh, v\u00e0 t\u00e2m linh – nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng (v\u00e0 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng) nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a b\u00e0i h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft, th\u00e0nh hai nh\u00f3m c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn kh\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt (Technical Analysis)<\/strong> d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ni\u1ec1m tin r\u1eb1ng \u201cth\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9,\u201d v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, h\u00e0nh vi gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 xem x\u00e9t c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, th\u00ec nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u00e1c b\u00ean tham gia, c\u00f9ng nhau s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 khi \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1, v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch quan s\u00e1t ch\u00fang, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u1eadt ra, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft r\u1ea5t \u00edt – \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong> cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n r\u00fat ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb c\u00e1c bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch hay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0nh ri\u00eang cho Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong>, v\u00e0 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111i s\u00e2u v\u00e0o n\u00f3; ch\u00fang t\u00f4i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong> kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u1ea3 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong> v\u00e0 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong> nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb ph\u00eda ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      D\u00f9 ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX) c\u00f3 tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a v\u0169 tr\u1ee5 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u x\u1ea3y ra trong \u0111\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia giao th\u01b0\u01a1ng, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, v\u00e0 th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean – t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, th\u00ec nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (v\u00ed d\u1ee5, th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng c\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00ean l\u1ecbch t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc) ho\u1eb7c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u00e0 k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi, b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai trong t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu l\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 huy\u1ec1n tho\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00e3 ghi d\u1ea5u \u1ea5n trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, l\u00e0 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a George Soros<\/strong>, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1edbm s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p gi\u1ea3m s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3ng Anh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ngay tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea3ng Anh \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i gia nh\u1eadp C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ERM<\/strong>), c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng duy nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft (ERM<\/strong>) l\u00e0 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m cho t\u1eebng c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, v\u00e0 t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t con r\u1eafn (v\u00ec v\u1eady to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “con r\u1eafn ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7”).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng (ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t) kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng duy tr\u00ec ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y, th\u00ec c\u00e1c can thi\u1ec7p ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. T\u1ea1i ranh gi\u1edbi c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, m\u1ed7i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3i mua ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh so v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, \u0111\u1ea9y n\u00f3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i trong kho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Th\u1eadt ra, (nh\u01b0 b\u00e2y gi\u1edd m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y) b\u1ea3ng Anh \u0111\u00e3 gia nh\u1eadp h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng mark \u0110\u1ee9c, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 2,95 mark cho m\u1ed7i b\u1ea3ng Anh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng cho ch\u00e2u \u00c2u; sau khi \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng kh\u00e1c trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u1ede Anh, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u1edf \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf, k\u00e8m theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p cao, v\u00e0 v\u00e2n v\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn nh\u1eb1m \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7; Bundesbank<\/strong> chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t, h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la, khi b\u1ea3ng Anh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng mark \u0110\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh (BOE<\/strong>) \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t m\u1ecdi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 duy tr\u00ec t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3ng Anh theo y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft ch\u00e2u \u00c2u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 – ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00e1 cao, t\u1ea1o ra th\u00eam c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u1eady n\u00ean, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3ng Anh, sau \u0111\u00f3 n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 lao d\u1ed1c ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c, v\u00e0 Anh r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e3 cho ph\u00e9p Soros<\/strong> \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00fang l\u00fac ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i b\u1ea3ng Anh v\u00e0 ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Do \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh b\u1edfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00e0 qua \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong> s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd (trong \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c gia) v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lu\u00f4n theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia giao th\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u, c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m quen v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a khoa h\u1ecdc ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch do c\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh theo \u0111u\u1ed5i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch mu\u1ed1n l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u00fd ngh\u0129a tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      1. C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      L\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng (Money Supply<\/strong>) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      S\u1ef1 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u0103ng l\u00ean tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n, n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u, s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregates)<\/strong>, ch\u00fang t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n thu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i kh\u00e1c nhau, m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t (c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u1ee7a ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregates)<\/strong> t\u1ef1 ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a h\u01a1i kh\u00e1c nhau \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, nh\u01b0ng \u00fd ngh\u0129a chung c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang kh\u00e1 gi\u1ed1ng nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ec7, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng M\u1ef9, n\u01a1i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra cho b\u1ed1n Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregates)<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      – M1<\/strong> – ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh ngo\u00e0i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, s\u00e9c du l\u1ecbch, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi thanh to\u00e1n kh\u00e1c;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      – M2<\/strong> = M1<\/strong> + ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch REPO<\/strong> qua \u0111\u00eam, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 qua \u0111\u00eam, qu\u1ef9 trong c\u00e1c t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n qu\u1ef9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      – M3<\/strong> = M2<\/strong> + tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, giao d\u1ecbch REPO<\/strong>, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi Eurodollar c\u1ee7a c\u01b0 d\u00e2n M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c chi nh\u00e1nh n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregate)<\/strong> kh\u00e1c, r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, nh\u01b0ng M2<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u, c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, v\u00ec v\u1eady ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      D\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n, th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 N\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregates)<\/strong> \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang v\u1edbi c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf (c\u00e1c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 h\u00e0nh vi chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn chi ti\u1ebft b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      H\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Monetary Aggregates)<\/strong> kh\u00e1c nhau trong chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1 gi\u1ed1ng nhau: t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1i \u0111a tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u suy tho\u00e1i v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i suy tho\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u00ec l\u00fd do n\u00e0y, M2<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao g\u1ed3m trong ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o d\u1eabn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p, v\u00ed d\u1ee5. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 nh\u1ea5t trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i; M2<\/strong> c\u00f3, trung b\u00ecnh, c\u00f9ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n suy tho\u00e1i v\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      2. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf hay t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00e0o quan tr\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (Interest Rate Differential<\/strong>), t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a hai lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0, do \u0111\u00f3, nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng lo\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u lo\u1ea1i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i qu\u1ed1c gia: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i vay ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (Official Interest Rate<\/strong>), l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng vay ti\u1ec1n l\u1eabn nhau (Interbank Offered Rate<\/strong>), l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 (Government Bonds Yields<\/strong>), l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng cho vay kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng (Lending Rates<\/strong>), v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi (Deposit Rates<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c do ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1eb7t ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Nh\u1edd v\u00e0o t\u00ednh minh b\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u00e0y nay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ef1a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 sinh l\u1ee3i nh\u1ea5t cho s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      V\u00ec v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nh\u1eadt (c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, qu\u1ef9 h\u01b0u tr\u00ed ho\u1eb7c c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m) c\u00f3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n h\u00e0ng ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 y\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt, v\u00ed d\u1ee5, 0,1% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, th\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd \u01b0u ti\u00ean m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi \u0111\u00f4 la v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 5,5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng M\u1ef9, ho\u1eb7c h\u1ecd s\u1ebd mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9, v\u1ed1n c\u0169ng tr\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao (v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac nh\u01b0 qu\u1ef9 h\u01b0u tr\u00ed c\u1ea7n ngu\u1ed3n thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady \u0111\u1ec3 chi tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00e0ng c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao cho m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c (ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3), c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng mua lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t lu\u00f4n li\u00ean quan ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 cao c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao tr\u00ean c\u00e1c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao khi\u1ebfn lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u00f3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111ang t\u0103ng, v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i c\u1ee7a lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u0103ng theo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u00f3i chung, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i kh\u00e1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e0ng cao cho m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00e0ng cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t theo ngh\u0129a th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (xem \u0111o\u1ea1n 6) v\u00ec c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd gi\u1eefa th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 (c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh), v\u1ed1n r\u1ea5t nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cao, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00ec thu nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m hao m\u00f2n thu nh\u1eadp n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Th\u1ee9 hai, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho ch\u00fang, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn chung cho r\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e2ng l\u00ean, th\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1ebd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00ean v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec t\u00e2m l\u00fd l\u1ea1c quan n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, cho ph\u00e9p xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh. Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng t\u0103ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i mua qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u00ec y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111i sau khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u00ec y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111i sau khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u00ec y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111i sau khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra v\u00ec s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u1ea1i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 t\u1ed1t cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


      L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00ean c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi, v.v… kh\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t sinh trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.
      \u1ede m\u1ed7i qu\u1ed1c gia, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho vay v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1edfi Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


      C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.
      L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n m\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong> (CB<\/strong>) cung c\u1ea5p ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


      L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong> cho vay li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ch\u00fang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00ean g\u1ecdi kh\u00e1c nhau, nh\u01b0ng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng chung l\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i vay ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb nhau trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


      L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n; l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn tr\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


      \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u00ednh c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ngh\u1ecbch v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.
      Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh (t\u1eeb 1 \u0111\u1ebfn 30 n\u0103m), sau \u0111\u00f3 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thanh to\u00e1n v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 danh ngh\u0129a (m\u1ec7nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi tr\u00ean tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Trong th\u1eddi gian l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, thu nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 theo l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


      N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 mua c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ec7nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, th\u00ec l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu; gi\u00e1 mua cao h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e0ng th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong> s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu m\u1edbi s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      B\u1ea1n C\u00f3 Th\u1ec3 \u0110\u1ecdc C\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng Kh\u00e1c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
      \n
      \"Gi\u00e1o<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

      Giao D\u1ecbch Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ed1i Cho Ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1edbi B\u1eaft \u0110\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 3: Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng, Ho\u1ea1t \u0110\u1ed9ng, B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Th\u00fac \u0110\u1ea9y Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7: Ph\u00e1t H\u00e0nh D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1. Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef \u201cd\u1eef li\u1ec7u\u201d bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

      \n
      \"Gi\u00e1o<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

      Giao D\u1ecbch Ngo\u1ea1i H\u1ed1i Cho Ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1edbi B\u1eaft \u0110\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 5: T\u1ef7 Gi\u00e1 H\u1ed1i \u0110o\u00e1i, C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

      T\u1ef7 Gi\u00e1 H\u1ed1i \u0110o\u00e1i v\u00e0 L\u1ea1m Ph\u00e1t, C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Kinh T\u1ebf, T\u1ed5ng S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m Qu\u1ed1c N\u1ed9i, C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e0nh S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t, Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf, Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea Vi\u1ec7c L\u00e0m, Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Lao \u0110\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      PH\u00c2N T\u00cdCH TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG NGO\u1ea0I H\u1ed0I C\u01a0 B\u1ea2N Giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ng\u00e0y nay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng r\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn: kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (FOREX – Foreign Exchange) to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98291,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[14894],"tags":[17426,17427,17579,17580,17434,17581,17582,17546,17583,17584,17585,17586,17485,17587,17588,17589,17590,17591,17592],"class_list":["post-98350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-giao-duc","tag-beginner-forex-guide-vi","tag-central-bank-interest-rates-vi","tag-currency-market-fundamentals-vi","tag-forex-economic-indicators-vi","tag-forex-education-vi","tag-forex-fundamentals-vi","tag-forex-interest-rates-vi","tag-forex-learning-series-vi","tag-forex-market-analysis-vi","tag-forex-market-fundamentals-vi","tag-forex-market-yields-vi","tag-forex-trading-basics-vi","tag-forex-trading-for-beginners-vi","tag-fundamental-forex-analysis-vi","tag-government-securities-yields-vi","tag-interest-rate-impact-vi","tag-monetary-statistics-indicators-vi","tag-money-and-interest-rates-vi","tag-understanding-interest-rates-vi"],"acf":{"metatrader4":"MT4","metatrader5":"MT5","type":"","typebrief":"","mt4buy":"https:\/\/www.mql5.com\/en\/users\/vladon\/seller#products","mt5buy":"https:\/\/www.mql5.com\/en\/users\/vladon\/seller#products","typefreedemo":"FREE","downloadfreedemo":"","DirectDownloadLink":"","versions":"23.999","version_date":"2023 12 12","postanotherid":"0","direct5":"","direct4":"","testimonials_list":"","schema_name":"","schema_description":"","schema_type":"Utilities","schema_ratingValue":"5","schema_ratingCount":"50","schema_highPrice_MT4":"50.00","schema_rentprice_MT4":"0.00","schema_highPrice_MT5":"50.00","schema_rentprice_MT5":"0.00"},"yoast_head":"\nGiao d\u1ecbch ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (Forex) cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 4: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (Forex) th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef \u0111\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 gi\u1ecdng n\u00f3i ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng. Gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed9c gi\u1ea3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau trong t\u00e2m tr\u00ed.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/vi\/forex-for-beginners-part-4\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Giao d\u1ecbch ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (Forex) cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 4: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (Forex) th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. 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