{"id":98591,"date":"2025-01-04T08:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T08:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/expforex.com\/forex-for-beginners-part-6\/"},"modified":"2025-04-12T13:55:43","modified_gmt":"2025-04-12T13:55:43","slug":"forex-for-beginners-part-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/expforex.com\/vi\/forex-for-beginners-part-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Giao d\u1ecbch Forex cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 6: C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cac-ch\u1ec9-s\u1ed1-nhu-c\u1ea7u-tieu-dung-consumer-demand-indicators\"><strong>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Demand Indicators)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Demand Indicators)<\/strong> l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng khi mua s\u1eafm c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, v\u00ec nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng cao k\u00edch th\u00edch ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m ho\u1eb7c y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (Central Banks) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh <strong>l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (interest rates)<\/strong> ho\u1eb7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 \u1edf v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00e0 \u1edf, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Sentiment Index).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xay-d\u1ef1ng-nha-\u1edf-va-th\u1ecb-tr\u01b0\u1eddng-nha-\u1edf\"><strong>X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng Nh\u00e0 \u1edf v\u00e0 Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Nh\u00e0 \u1edf<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 \u1edf<\/strong> v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 <strong>th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00e0 \u1edf<\/strong>, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u00ednh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, bao g\u1ed3m \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch ch\u00fang tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00e1 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u0103m 1999, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd khi C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng h\u01a1n n\u1eefa c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 \u1edf l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ecdi cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i sau Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 hai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 \u1edf<\/strong> v\u00e0 <strong>th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00e0 \u1edf<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i \u1edf m\u1ecdi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (Building Permits)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (Housing Starts)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (Housing Completions)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>B\u00e1n nh\u00e0 gia \u0111\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n l\u1eadp m\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u0169 (New and Existing One-Family Home Sales)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Chi ph\u00ed x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (Construction Expenditures)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chung, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i theo b\u1ed1n khu v\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh: \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc, T\u00e2y, Trung T\u00e2y v\u00e0 Nam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c th\u1ee9 15 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ban-l\u1ebb\"><strong>B\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 B\u00e1n l\u1ebb (RS)<\/strong> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a chi ti\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do \u0111\u00f3, v\u1edbi vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, RS c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n tham chi\u1ebfu cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n giao trong chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9, v\u00ec nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u thu nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng h\u01a1n, th\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1992.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>B\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/strong> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 trong \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh l\u00e0 th\u1ea5p, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c theo m\u00f9a r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u00e1n l\u1ebb h\u00e0ng n\u0103m n\u00f3i chung cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y sang th\u00e1ng kh\u00e1c trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb c\u1ee7a doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n \u00f4 t\u00f4, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t h\u1eefu \u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-doanh-s\u1ed1-ban-xe-t\u1ea3i-va-xe-h\u01a1i\"><strong>Doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n Xe t\u1ea3i v\u00e0 Xe h\u01a1i<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Do s\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00f3a ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u00f4 t\u00f4 (xe M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafp r\u00e1p ngo\u00e0i M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 xe c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f9ng \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong M\u1ef9; trong s\u1ed1 4,367,752 xe \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n \u1edf M\u1ef9 n\u0103m 1991, c\u00f3 712,672 xe l\u00e0 xe nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u), v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 theo chu k\u1ef3, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe h\u01a1i (New Cars, NCAR) c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe t\u1ea3i v\u00e0 xe h\u01a1i (Car and Truck Sales, C&amp;TS) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn h\u1eefu \u00edch cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe m\u1edbi, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t cho xe t\u1ea3i v\u00e0 xe h\u01a1i, th\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00f9ng th\u1eddi gian \u1edf M\u1ef9 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe kh\u00e1ch trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf kho\u1ea3ng 1,5% m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng, v\u00e0 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng, kho\u1ea3ng 2,0%. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xe t\u1ea3i, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kho\u1ea3ng 0,9% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 0,3% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i, doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe t\u1ea3i th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n xe kh\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ch\u1ec9-s\u1ed1-tam-ly-ng\u01b0\u1eddi-tieu-dung-consumer-sentiment-index\"><strong>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 T\u00e2m l\u00fd Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Sentiment Index)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3, c\u00f3 ba nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng v\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n trong vi\u1ec7c chi ti\u00eau mua s\u1eafm c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Michigan &#8211; Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 T\u00e2m l\u00fd Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (University of Michigan&#8217;s Consumer Sentiment Index)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb &#8211; Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Ni\u1ec1m tin Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Confidence Index)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ABC News v\u00e0 Money Magazine &#8211; Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t \u00dd ki\u1ebfn<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n (trong kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb 6 \u0111\u1ebfn 12 th\u00e1ng). C\u00e1c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, mua s\u1eafm h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a b\u1ec1n, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, v.v. C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i theo d\u1ea1ng \u201ct\u1ed1t h\u01a1n\/t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n\u201d d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c sau:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>100 + (% t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n &#8211; % t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \/ (t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n + t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n &#8211; t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n (trung b\u00ecnh 4 tu\u1ea7n).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian bao ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cac-ch\u1ec9-s\u1ed1-chu-k\u1ef3-kinh-doanh\"><strong>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Chu k\u1ef3 Kinh doanh<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00eau trong m\u1ed9t s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t d\u00e0nh cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0: \u201cTheo d\u00f5i <strong>l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (interest rates)<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nghe c\u00f3 v\u1ebb d\u1ec5 n\u00f3i h\u01a1n l\u00e0m, v\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (Central Banks) th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1ea1i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i <strong>l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (interest rates)<\/strong> ch\u00ednh c\u00e0ng \u00edt c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang t\u00ednh l\u00e2u d\u00e0i do h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e1n t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0110\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf; c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u0169ng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u mua ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i nh\u1ea5t. Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a <strong>l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (interest rates)<\/strong>, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 theo m\u1ed9t h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh trong th\u1eddi gian k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec7u thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a <strong>l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (interest rates)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t s\u00f3ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00ec ch\u00fang l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh trong c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (Central Banks) hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh vi theo chu k\u1ef3 \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf ri\u00eang \u0111\u1ec3 minh h\u1ecda r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n giao c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t hai lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ch\u1ec9-s\u1ed1-kinh-t\u1ebf-d\u1eabn-d\u1ea7u-leading-economic-indicator\"><strong>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Kinh t\u1ebf D\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u (Leading Economic Indicator)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>X\u00e9t r\u1eb1ng nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 theo c\u00e1ch ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ri\u00eang l\u1ebb l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t h\u00f3a (trung b\u00ecnh), ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o chu k\u1ef3 so v\u1edbi t\u1eebng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ri\u00eang l\u1ebb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Kinh t\u1ebf D\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u (LEI) k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 11 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0110\u1ed9 d\u00e0i trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a tu\u1ea7n l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n (unemployment claims)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u0110\u01a1n h\u00e0ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u1edbi cho h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u (new production orders)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 giao h\u00e0ng<\/strong> (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n giao h\u00e0ng t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>H\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng cho ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb (Contracts and Orders)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5p (Building Permits)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n \u0111\u1ecdng cho h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a b\u1ec1n<\/strong> (thay \u0111\u1ed5i h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, 1982 Prices).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n S&amp;P 500 (Trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>T\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 M2 t\u00ednh theo \u0111\u00f4 la n\u0103m 1982<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Expectations Index)<\/strong> t\u1eeb \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Michigan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 LEI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh theo d\u1ea1ng <strong>LEI = w<sub>i<\/sub> * I<sub>i<\/sub><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 b\u1eb1ng nhau c\u0169ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LEI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat khi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn doanh thu s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do \u0111\u00f3, LEI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh, bao g\u1ed3m: vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp, ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 LEI c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cac-ch\u1ec9-s\u1ed1-ho\u1ea1t-d\u1ed9ng-kinh-doanh\"><strong>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng Kinh doanh<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 khu\u1ebfch t\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y trong th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, v\u1ed1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan trong kinh doanh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean v\u1edbi t\u00ean g\u1ecdi <strong>PMI (Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index)<\/strong> t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, Anh v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c b\u1edfi c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i kinh doanh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang v\u00e0 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1ch quan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u1ea1i Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 mang t\u00ean <strong>TANKAN<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (Central Bank of Japan) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 khu\u1ebfch t\u00e1n<\/strong>, kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i kh\u00e1c, l\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 quan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng, thu nh\u1eadp, v.v. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00fang ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean tham gia c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra \u2014 li\u1ec7u h\u1ecd xem c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c hay d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn suy tho\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p, ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 v\u00ec t\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 quan c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u00fang \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 khu\u1ebfch t\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean tham gia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e1c c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi nh\u01b0, &#8220;\u0110i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh doanh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng m\u1edbi, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng, \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1edbi, v.v. kh\u00f4ng?&#8221; v\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t trong ba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n: &#8220;C\u00f3&#8221;, &#8220;Kh\u00f4ng&#8221;, ho\u1eb7c &#8220;Kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DI = (% C\u00f3) + 0.5 * (% Kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i)<\/strong>;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sau khi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 khu\u1ebfch t\u00e1n cho t\u1eebng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi, ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 <strong>PMI<\/strong> ho\u1eb7c <strong>TANKAN<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong vi\u1ec7c theo d\u00f5i \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu sau m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh, trong khi n\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng sau khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u00e1y th\u00ec b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong 40 n\u0103m, PMI d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh s\u1edbm h\u01a1n 7 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1edbm h\u01a1n 3 th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-b\u1ea1n-co-th\u1ec3-d\u1ecdc-cac-ch\u01b0\u01a1ng-khac\"><strong>B\u1ea1n C\u00f3 Th\u1ec3 \u0110\u1ecdc C\u00e1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng Kh\u00e1c<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/vi\/forex-for-beginners-part-5\/\" data-language=\"vi\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/Education_Begin_5.png\" alt=\"Gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c Forex - Nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho MetaTrader - Ph\u1ea7n 5 - Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/vi\/forex-for-beginners-part-5\/\" data-language=\"vi\"><strong>Giao d\u1ecbch Forex cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 5: Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/strong><\/a>\n    <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000FF;\"><strong>T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/strong><\/span>: L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 theo d\u00f5i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Forex, [\u2026]<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/forex-for-beginners-part-7\/\" data-language=\"vi\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/Education_Begin_7.png\" alt=\"Gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c Forex - Nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho MetaTrader - Ph\u1ea7n 7 - T\u00e2m l\u00fd Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3, Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/expforex.com\/forex-for-beginners-part-7\/\" data-language=\"vi\"><strong>Giao d\u1ecbch Forex cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 7: T\u00e2m l\u00fd Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3, Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/strong><\/a>\n    <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000FF;\"><strong>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u C\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000FF;\"><strong>T\u00e2m l\u00fd Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/strong><\/span> v\u00e0 Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, <span style=\"color: #0000FF;\"><strong>C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 Ch\u00ednh<\/strong><\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000FF;\"><strong>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Demand Indicators) C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Demand Indicators) l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng khi mua s\u1eafm<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[14894],"tags":[17426,17633,17634,17635,17636,17637,17638,17617,17639,17640,17641,17580,17434,17546,17584,17586,17485,17642,17643,17644],"class_list":["post-98591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-giao-duc","tag-beginner-forex-guide-vi","tag-business-cycle-indicators-vi","tag-consumer-demand-in-forex-vi","tag-consumer-demand-indicators-vi","tag-consumer-market-influence-vi","tag-consumer-sentiment-index-vi","tag-economic-data-in-forex-vi","tag-economic-impact-on-forex-vi","tag-forex-and-business-cycles-vi","tag-forex-and-consumer-sentiment-vi","tag-forex-demand-analysis-vi","tag-forex-economic-indicators-vi","tag-forex-education-vi","tag-forex-learning-series-vi","tag-forex-market-fundamentals-vi","tag-forex-trading-basics-vi","tag-forex-trading-for-beginners-vi","tag-housing-construction-data-vi","tag-housing-market-impact-vi","tag-truck-and-car-sales-vi"],"acf":{"metatrader4":"MT4","metatrader5":"MT5","type":"","typebrief":"","mt4buy":"https:\/\/www.mql5.com\/en\/users\/vladon\/seller#products","mt5buy":"https:\/\/www.mql5.com\/en\/users\/vladon\/seller#products","typefreedemo":"FREE","downloadfreedemo":"","DirectDownloadLink":"","versions":"23.999","version_date":"2023 12 12","postanotherid":"0","direct5":"","direct4":"","testimonials_list":"","schema_name":"","schema_description":"","schema_type":"Utilities","schema_ratingValue":"5","schema_ratingCount":"50","schema_highPrice_MT4":"50.00","schema_rentprice_MT4":"0.00","schema_highPrice_MT5":"50.00","schema_rentprice_MT5":"0.00"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Giao d\u1ecbch Forex cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u Ph\u1ea7n 6: C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"H\u1ecdc c\u00e1c m\u1eb9o giao d\u1ecbch Forex gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1edbi C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (Consumer Demand Indicators) trong Ph\u1ea7n 6 c\u1ee7a lo\u1ea1t b\u00e0i d\u00e0nh cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u giao d\u1ecbch Forex. 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